Concern Grows For Ukrainian Soldiers After Surrender To Russia In Mariupol


<!–

–>

Buses left Azovstal steelworks on Monday in a convoy escorted by Russian armored vehicles.

Mariupol:

Concerns grew on Wednesday for the welfare of more than 250 Ukrainian fighters who surrendered to Russian forces at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol after weeks of desperate resistance.

The surrender brought an end to the most devastating siege of Russia’s war in Ukraine and allowed President Vladimir Putin to claim a rare victory in his faltering campaign, which many military analysts say has stalled.

Buses left the steelworks late on Monday in a convoy escorted by Russian armored vehicles. Five arrived in the Russian-held town of Novoazovsk, where Moscow said wounded fighters would be treated.

Seven buses carrying Ukrainian fighters from the Azovstal garrison arrived at a newly reopened prison in the Russian-controlled town of Olenivka near Donetsk, a Reuters witness said.

Russia said at least 256 Ukrainian fighters had “laid down their arms and surrendered”, including 51 severely wounded. Ukraine said 264 soldiers, including 53 wounded, had left.

Russian defense ministry video showed fighters leaving the plant, some carried on stretchers, others with hands up to be searched by Russian troops.

There were some women aboard at least one of the buses in Olenivka, Reuters video showed.

While both sides spoke of a deal under which all Ukrainian troops would abandon the steelworks, many details were not yet public, including how many fighters still remained inside, and whether any form of prisoner swap had been agreed.

The Kremlin said Putin had personally guaranteed the prisoners would be treated according to international standards, and Ukrainian officials said they could be exchanged for Russian captives.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Kyiv aimed to arrange a prisoner swap for the wounded once their condition stabilized.

Russian Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky said there had been no deal, tweeting: “I did not know English has so many ways to express a single message: the #Azovnazis have unconditionally surrendered.”

TASS news agency reported a Russian committee planned to question the soldiers, many of them members of the Azov Battalion, as part of an investigation into what Moscow calls “Ukrainian regime crimes”.

High-profile Russian lawmakers spoke out against any prisoner swap. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the State Duma, Russia’s lower house, said: “These criminals should not be exchanged.”

Lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, one of Russia’s negotiators in talks with Ukraine, called the evacuated combatants “animals in human form” and said they should be executed.

Formed in 2014 as an extreme right-wing volunteer militia to fight Russian-backed separatists, the Azov Regiment denies being fascist or neo-Nazi. Ukraine says it has been reformed and integrated into the National Guard.

Natalia, the wife of a sailor among those holed up in the plant, told Reuters she hoped “there will be an honest exchange”. But she was still worried: “What Russia is doing now is inhumane.”

Battle for Donbas

The denouement of the battle for Mariupol, which came to symbolize Ukrainian resistance, is Russia’s biggest victory since it launched what it calls a “special military operation” to “denazify” the country on Feb. 24.

It gives Moscow control of the Azov Sea coast and an unbroken stretch of eastern and southern Ukraine. The port lies in ruins, and Ukraine believes tens of thousands of people were killed under months of Russian bombardment.

On the diplomatic front, US President Joe Biden will host the leaders of Sweden and Finland at the White House on Thursday to discuss their NATO applications, the White House said. The Nordic countries are optimistic they can overcome objections from Turkey over jointing the 30-nation alliance.

Russia’s offensive in the east, meanwhile, appeared to be making little progress, although the Kremlin says all its objectives will be reached.

Around a third of the Donbas was held by Russia-backed separatists before the invasion. Moscow now controls around 90 percent of the Luhansk region, but it has failed to make major inroads towards the key cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk in order to extend control over the entire Donbas.

Ukrainian forces have advanced at their fastest pace for more than a month, driving Russian forces out of the area around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Ukraine says its forces had reached the Russian border, 40 km (25 miles) north of Kharkiv. They have also pushed at least as far as the Siverskiy Donets river 40 km to the east, where they could threaten Russian supply lines.

Putin may have to decide whether to send more troops and hardware to replenish his weakened invasion force as an influx of Western weapons, including scores of US and Canadian M777 howitzers that have longer range than their Russian equivalents, bolsters Ukraine’s combat power, analysts said.

“Time is definitely working against the Russians … The Ukrainians are getting stronger almost every day,” said Neil Melvin of the RUSI think-tank in London.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)



Source link

Tucker: The Democratic Party has decided they will change the electorate


NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Last May, a 17-year-old high school senior called Payton Gendron received an assignment in his economics class. The assignment asked, “What do you want to do when you retire?” He answered, “Commit murder-suicide.” Gendron’s teacher immediately reported his threat to authorities who sent him to the emergency room for a psychiatric evaluation. 

Gendron was there for just 20 hours as he wrote later in his diary, “I got out of it because I stuck with the story that I was getting out of class and I just stupidly wrote that down. That’s the reason I believe I’m still able to purchase guns.”

But he was lying. Gendron’s intention to commit mass murder was, as he later wrote, “Not a joke. I wrote that down because that’s what I was planning to do,” 

And he was. Payton Gendron was mentally ill. His classmates knew that. Gendron made strange facial expressions and said odd things in class. Last year, he showed up for school for a full week wearing a hazmat suit — boots, gloves, everything, recalled another student.  

Police and school administrators understood perfectly well that Gendron was potentially dangerous. That’s why they sent him to the psych ward. Even his own parents must have known that something was very wrong. Gendron’s diary describes how his mother helped him bury a cat he had beaten to death in the garage and then beheaded with a hatchet. On Saturday, Payton Gendron, as you know, finally did what he said he would do. He committed mass murder. 

BUFFALO TEEN WHOSE AUNT, COUSIN WERE INSIDE GROCERY STORE DURING ATTACK: ‘WE’VE GOT TO COME TOGETHER’ 

Payton Gendron appears during his arraignment in Buffalo City Court, Saturday, May 14, 2022, in Buffalo, N.Y.
(Mark Mulville/The Buffalo News via AP)

He opened fire on a crowd of strangers in a Buffalo supermarket. He murdered 10 of them. So how did the adults around him let this happen? In a country with functioning leadership, we would be asking that question. The signs of mental illness were certainly there. The people in charge missed those signs or didn’t take them seriously enough or weren’t paying close enough attention. In any case, they didn’t fix it. They let a killer slip through. 

So, what did they do wrong with Payton Gendron, and how can we learn from it? We should learn from it if we want to prevent more mass murders. But that’s not at all what our leaders are asking tonight. Hardly. Instead, they’re asking the only question that ever occurs to them – how exactly can I benefit from this? How can I leverage this tragedy to my advantage? How can other people’s suffering make me more powerful?  

It didn’t take long for Joe Biden to find a way. Biden flew to Buffalo this morning to speak about what Payton Gendron did. There have been a number of mass murders since Biden became president. Some of them have been racially motivated. A little over a year ago, in fact, there was even another supermarket massacre that happened to have the same casualty total. 

BUFFALO MASS SHOOTING: BIDEN VISITS TOPS SUPERMARKET MEMORIAL, PAYING RESPECT TO VICTIMS 

A Syrian-born man murdered ten people in Boulder, Colorado, even used the same caliber rifle that Payton Gendron brought to Buffalo, but Joe Biden didn’t bother to fly to that crime scene. He didn’t go to any of them, in fact. Biden went to Buffalo today because he thought he could blame his political opponents for what happened there, which, of course, he promptly did. Watch.  

PRESIDENT BIDEN: And other nations ask me, heads of state and other countries ask me: what’s going on? What in God’s name happened on January 6? What happened in Buffalo? They ask.  

January 6 and the Buffalo Massacre — so how is a political protest at the Capitol related to a murder spree by a demented teenager in New York State over the weekend? What do those two events have in common and who exactly are these unnamed heads of state who are connecting these unconnected events in conversations with Joe Biden? You may have wondered that, but don’t ask because it’s not meant to be asked. It is instead a dream sequence.  

NORTH KOREA MAY STAGE ICBM TEST LAUNCH AS BIDEN PREPARES FOR ASIA TRIP, SOURCE SAYS 

President Biden speaks during the 2022 National and State Teachers of the Year event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, April 27, 2022. 

President Biden speaks during the 2022 National and State Teachers of the Year event in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, April 27, 2022. 
(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

It’s a rhetorical device meant to connect everything that might challenge Joe Biden and bunch all of these things together in the same repulsive moral category. January 6, mass murder, the bubonic plague—it’s all the same. It’s all bad. And because it’s bad, Joe Biden informed us today, after 250 years, we’re going to have to suspend the Bill of Rights and we’re going to begin where the Bill of Rights begins, with the freedom of speech.  

BIDEN: You can’t prevent people from being radicalized to violence, but we can address the relentless exploitation of the Internet to recruit and mobilize terrorism.  

The relentless exploitation of the Internet to recruit and mobilize terrorism. Okay. But can anyone show, has anyone ever shown that this specific case, Payton Gendron, was “recruited and mobilized by the internet”? Well, no, in fact. By his own account, he was mentally ill. He snapped. He’d been planning this for a long time. He did what his diseased brain commanded him to do. The internet did not make him do it. He did it himself, but even if he had been “radicalized by what he read on the Internet,” what then exactly?  

HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP REPAIRMEN SAYS FBI ‘DIDN’T SEEM INTERESTED’ IN REVIEWING HARD DRIVE 

Many have been radicalized by what they’ve read. Pol Pot was radicalized by reading Das Kapital. He went on a murder spree. He killed more than a million people. Should we ban that book? Should we ban all books, all internet sites that “radicalize people?” What exactly is Joe Biden saying here? Well, he’s saying that thanks to what happened in Buffalo over the weekend, you no longer have any rights at all, including the most basic, which is to read what you want. After nullifying the First Amendment, Joe Biden moved to the Second Amendment.  

BIDEN: The venom of the haters and their weapons of war, the violence in the words and deeds that stalk our streets, our stores, our schools. This venom, this violence cannot be the story of our time, but there are certain things we can do. We can keep assault weapons off our streets. We’ve done it before.  

So, because a mentally ill 18-year-old used a specific rifle to commit these crimes, you can’t have that rifle. Now, Joe Biden’s bodyguards can have that rifle, so can Nancy Pelosi’s and of course, they do. In fact, you pay for it all. But they’re important, and you are not, so you can’t. So, because the people in charge failed to protect shoppers in Buffalo, you’re not allowed to defend your family despite the fact you may believe your family is every bit as important as Joe Biden and his family and Nancy Pelosi and her family, but they’re not as important. 

WHITE HOUSE MAKES 3RD ROUND OF FREE COVID-19 TESTS AVAILABLE TO ORDER 

So, we’re going to defund the police and disarm you. That’s how it works now, sorry.

And then Joe Biden got to the main point of his speech, which is that people who criticize his immigration policies are responsible for the violence you saw in Buffalo. Here’s the president of the United States explaining that.  

BIDEN: The hate, that through the media and politics, the internet has radicalized angry, alienated, lost, and isolated individuals into falsely believing that they will be replaced. That’s the word “replaced” – by the other and I condemn those who spread the lie for power, political gain and for profit.  

So you lock the country down, lock kids out of their schools for two years, force them to get “educated on the internet,” but it’s someone else’s fault that they’re “alienated.” They’ve been hearing about the great replacement theory. You’ve heard a lot about the great replacement theory recently. It’s everywhere in the last two days and we’re still not sure exactly what it is. 

Here’s what we do know for a fact. There is a strong political component to the Democratic Party’s immigration policy. We’re not guessing this. We know this and we know it because they have said so.  

DHS SECRETARY MAYORKAS VISITS US-MEXICO BORDER AS END OF TITLE 42 LOOMS 

They’ve said it again and again and again. They’ve written books on it and monographs and magazine articles. They have bragged about it endlessly. They talk about it on cable news constantly and they say out loud, we are doing this because it helps us to win elections. That’s not something that is said once. It’s something that gloated about again and again and again and we think that’s wrong and in case you doubt us, here they are.  

STACEY ABRAMS: Blue wave is African-American. It’s White, it’s Latino, it’s Asian, Pacific Islander. It is made up of those who’ve been told that they are not worthy of being here. It is comprised of those who are documented and undocumented.  

JULIAN CASTRO: In a couple of presidential cycles, you’ll be on election night, you’ll be announcing that we’re calling the 38 electoral votes of Texas for the Democratic nominee for president. It’s changing. It’s going to become a purple state and then a blue state because of the demographics.  

WASHINGTON POST OP-ED SUGGESTS LEAKED SCOTUS DRAFT OPINION IS ABOUT ‘PROTECTING WHITENESS’ 

DICK DURBIN: The demographics of America are not on the side of the Republican Party. The new voters in this country are moving away from them, and instead they’re moving to be independents or even vote on the other side.  

BIDEN: An unrelenting stream of immigration, nonstop, nonstop. Folks like me, who are Caucasian of European descent for the first time in 2017 will be in an absolute minority in the United States of America, absolute minority. Fewer than 50% of the people in America from then on will be White European stock. That’s not a bad thing. That’s a source of our strength.  

So, you played clips of them saying it, and you’re the deranged conspiracy nut. Maybe the funniest part is they may not be right. The Democratic Party has decided then, rather than convince you, people who are born here, that their policies are helping you and making the country better and stronger, they will change the electorate. Again, they say that. We’re not guessing.

But the funniest part is they may be wrong, actually, judging by recent polling. It turns out your average Salvadorian landscaper’s politics are a lot closer to Donald Trump’s than they are to Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi. So, their basic calculation may be completely wrong, but that’s not even the point.  

NEW WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY BLASTED FOR BOTCHING ANSWER TO INFLATION QUESTION: ‘EXCRUCIATING TO WATCH’ 

It has nothing to do with who we’re letting in. It has nothing to do with race and ethnicity. It has to do with two things. One: the purpose of the U.S. government is to serve American citizens, period. Two: you should never craft any federal, which is to say, nationwide policy in order to help a specific political party. That is by itself in isolation, immoral. It doesn’t matter what the policy is, and that’s exactly what they’re doing. And again, they brag about it and not just Democratic Party politicians.  

Virtually every media figure on the left has been bragging about this for decades. Oh, it’s a conspiracy theory. Really? Well, here’s Ana Navarro from her time as a Harvard fellow. This is what she wrote, “The demographic trends show that the minority vote in the United States will continue to grow in numbers and influence. Unless you’re under the influence of hallucinogens, it is hard to imagine future scenarios where the Republican Party can win national elections.” That piece, by the way, is called “Old White, Straight Male Voters Ain’t What They Used to be.” 

So, let’s see. If you don’t want people to be paranoid and angry, maybe you don’t write pieces like that and rub it right in their face and give them the finger day after day. Maybe that would deescalate it a little bit. You think, Joe Biden, Ana Navarro? But they’re not the only two. This has been the prevailing view on the left for a long time.  

CONNECTICUT LACROSSE PLAYER JAMES MCGRATH STABBING: NO ARRESTS IN HIGH SCHOOLER DEATH AFTER HOUSE PARTY FIGHT 

Here’s a Politico piece from 2013. We could go on for hours, by the way, but here’s this: “Immigration reform could be a bonanza for Democrats.” The Democratic Party, the piece said, are, “pumping as many as 11 million new Hispanic voters into the electorate a decade from now in ways that could produce an electoral bonanza for Democrats and cripple Republican prospects in many states, they now win easily.”

Again, as noted, that calculation may be completely wrong. A lot of those people the Democrats are importing may wind up being deeply sympathetic to the other party because they’re actually not White liberals. That’s the secret. But it almost doesn’t matter how they vote. Thinking about politics in those terms is immoral. That is wrong. You are gaming the system. That is not democracy. It’s the opposite, and they bragged about it for more than a decade. 

Here’s another example, also from 2013. The Center for American Progress announced that, “Supporting real immigration reform that contains a pathway to citizenship for our nation’s 11 million undocumented immigrants is the only way to maintain electoral strength in the future.”

Oh, great replacement theory, anyone? These people are lunatics. They’re telling you what their strategy is. When you note it, they scream at you and call you a criminal. In 2018, the New York Times published an editorial called, “We Can Replace Them.” Just in case subtlety is not your thing, “Right now, America is tearing itself apart as an embittered, White, conservative minority clings to power, terrified of being swamped by a new, multiracial, polyglot majority.” Right, ok.  

PRESIDENT BIDEN VISITS BUFFALO, MEETS VICTIMS’ FAMILIES FOLLOWING TOPS MARKET ATTACK 

In 2020, Joe Scarborough – real moral voice over at MSNBC – quoted this: “Trumpism accelerated damage done by demographic changes and will harm Republicans for years. Demographics is destiny.”

Are you allowed to say that? Once again, they’re wrong and if you haven’t looked at a an electoral map recently, look at the districts. The almost 100% Hispanic districts in the Rio Grande Valley that are bearing the brunt of our open borders, they’re now red. 

So. you’re wrong, Joe Scarborough, but the fact that you’re saying demographics is destiny tells you the great replacement theory is coming from the left. They don’t think it’s a theory. They think it’s real.  

In 2021, the Washington Post’s Jen Rubin celebrated a report that the number of White people in this country was declining. Can you even imagine? “This is fabulous news,” she wrote. “Now we need to prevent minority White rule.” My God, talking like that. Is there any more divisive thing you could write? We could give you a million more examples. We’re offended by this because it’s wrong and we’ve said so, but for saying so, according to Carl Cameron on MSNBC today, we should be thrown in jail. Watch.  

CARL CAMERON: You got to watch out because the Republicans have become the purveyors of misinformation and when our two-party system is broken like that, democracy is seriously in trouble. The president acknowledged that. It’s time to actually start doing things and maybe taking some names and putting people in jail.  

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of N.Y., speaks to the media after a Democratic policy luncheon, Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021, on Capitol Hill in Washington. 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of N.Y., speaks to the media after a Democratic policy luncheon, Tuesday, Oct. 19, 2021, on Capitol Hill in Washington. 
(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

“Maybe taking some names and putting people in jail.” Hmm. Who would those people be? Well, thanks to the Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, we now know. Schumer just sent a letter to our bosses here at Fox News blaming this show for the mass murder in Buffalo, as well as several other mass shootings in recent years. According to Chuck Schumer, this show spreads “dangerous rhetoric and needs to be pulled off the air immediately in the name of public safety.”

Now, again, Chuck Schumer is a federal official. He is the leading Democrat in the United States Senate and he is calling for media censorship. Now, there was a time like maybe 18 months ago when that would be considered a direct violation of the First Amendment. Now we hear it every day. “Let’s throw them in jail.”

We wanted to hear more from Chuck Schumer about this. We invited him on the show tonight, as we always do, but because he is a coward, this is the only media appearance probably in history he’s turned down. 



Source link

Ability to sell non-par products to be LIC’s big challenge


As the country’s largest life insurance company, LIC’s brand and distribution franchise are unparalleled. Following its recent reorganization, the company is set to increase the share of non-participating pure protection products which currently form just ~ 5-6% of its overall product portfolio. However, the ability to sell high-margin non-par products – as opposed to par products that provide policyholders a significant share of policyholder’s surplus – will require a change in the mindset of the organization and its agency force, which could be LIC’s biggest challenge. .

Inherent volatility in embedded value (EV) is another big challenge given a substantial portion of EV constitutes marked-to-market (MTM) unrealized equity gains.

Scaling up non-par business will be a challenge

Due to legacy reasons, LIC traditionally has largely sold just one product, ie participating (par) policies. The management earlier never looked at profitability of products in terms of value of new business (VNB) margins, ROEV, etc. To change the approach and start selling high-margin non-par savings policies and pure protection products could be difficult in our view. We have already factored in an aggressive ~ 30% non-par premium CAGR over FY21-26E.

LIC has been losing market share in the individual segment with annualized premium equivalent (APE) growth of just ~ 6-7% over the past five years, compared with ~ 14% for private players. Ticket sizes for LIC are also one-fifth that of the private sector, implying the target segment is different, and selling non-par savings products to smaller ticket-sized segments won’t be easy. We assume LIC will deliver a ~ 12% APE CAGR and a ~ 30% VNB CAGR over FY22-26E. Downside to our assumptions cannot be ruled out.

Scaling up of bancassurance channel

While LIC’s highly productive agents – almost ~ 7x the size of the next largest player in the market, remains a formidable force, we remain sceptical about scaling up the bancassurance business considering the three largest banks – HDFCB, ICICI and SBI – are not partners for bancassurance. Also, in other channels like direct / online, LIC’s presence has been insignificant.

Stock needs to trade closer to EV

LIC’s EV in September 2021 consisted of almost ~ 70% of equity MTM gains, and hence sensitivity of EV to equity market corrections is far higher than private-sector peers. Unlike private-sector peers where 9-10% of accretion to EV comes from VNB, for LIC, the accretion is just a mere 1% (due to the large EV base coming from existing policies in force), and so the contribution of new business to overall value is much lower.

!function(f,b,e,v,n,t,s)
{if(f.fbq)return;n=f.fbq=function(){n.callMethod?
n.callMethod.apply(n,arguments):n.queue.push(arguments)};
if(!f._fbq)f._fbq=n;n.push=n;n.loaded=!0;n.version=’2.0′;
n.queue=[];t=b.createElement(e);t.async=!0;
t.src=v;s=b.getElementsByTagName(e)[0];
s.parentNode.insertBefore(t,s)}(window, document,’script’,
‘https://connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents.js’);
fbq(‘init’, ‘444470064056909’);
fbq(‘track’, ‘PageView’);



Source link

New York Raises Covid Alert From “Medium” To “High” As Infections Soar


<!–

–>

New York City raised its COVID-19 alert level to “medium” from “low” in early May. (Representational)

New York:

New York City, the largest city in the United States, raised its COVID-19 alert level from “medium” to “high” on Tuesday, as infections continue to go up in recent weeks.

The rating means there is a high COVID-19 community spread and pressure on the health care system in the city is substantial.

“New York City has transitioned to a high COVID alert level, meaning now is the time to double down on protecting ourselves and each other by making choices that can keep our friends, neighbors, relatives and coworkers from getting sick,” said Dr Ashwin Vasan. , the city’s health commissioner.

The guidance requires New Yorkers to wear a face mask in all public indoor settings and crowded outdoor settings and consider avoiding higher-risk activities.

New York City raised its COVID-19 alert level to “medium” from “low” in early May.

Even though this is only one step away from reaching the highest COVID-19 alert level, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said on Monday, “We’re not at the point of mandating masks.”

The seven-day average percentage of positive COVID-19 test results rose to 5.18 per cent in New York City on Monday, still the lowest among 10 regions in New York State, according to data issued by the state on Tuesday.

Daily new COVID-19 cases in the United States have been on the rise since early April, and the death count from the pandemic has surpassed 1 million in the country.

(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)



Source link

Labor’s Lead Narrows in Three New National Polls

International

This analysis first appeared on The Conversation website and is republished here with permission under a creative commons license

Polling analyst for Australia’s The Conversation site, Adrian Beaumont, analyzes three big polls showing some encouragement for Scott Morrison’s incumbent Liberal-National coalition with days to go to the national election

The final Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 12-17 from a sample of 2,049, gave Labor just a 52-48 lead by 2019 election preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight’s Resolve. By respondent preferences, Labor’s lead was narrower at 51-49, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

Primary votes were 34% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down three), 14% Greens (down one), 6% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (down one), 6% independents (up two) ) and 4% others (steady). 86% said they were now committed to their first preference (up 10), while 14% were not yet committed (down 10).

50% thought Scott Morrison was doing a bad job and 43% a good job for a net approval of -7, up two points. Anthony Albanese gained three points for a net approval of -8. Morrison led as preferred PM by 40-36 (39-33 previously).

Labor and Albanese led the Liberals and Morrison by 32-30 on keeping the cost of living low (34-28 previously). On economic management, the Liberals led by 40-30 (42-27 last time).

The poll supplemented its usual online sample of about 1,400 for campaign polls with several hundred respondents interviewed by telephone.

In the three polls so far this week, Resolve has had the most dramatic narrowing. Essential has generally had better results for the Coalition than other polls, and Labor’s lead after preferences has been as low as one point twice this year. The narrowing in Morgan was not all it seemed.

I don’t think the Coalition’s campaign launch on Sunday and their housing policy is responsible, as the fieldwork for these polls began well before then. With Morrison’s ratings still well in negative territory, the narrowing may reflect hesitation about voting Labor.

I expect more polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and perhaps a final Morgan poll by Friday night.

Essential: 48-46 to Labor with undecided included

The final Essential poll, conducted May 11-16 from a sample of 1,600, gave Labor a 48-46 lead with undecided included (49-45 last fortnight). Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 35% Labor (steady), 9% Greens (down one), 4% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (down one), 6% Others (up one) and 7% undecided (up one).

With undecided excluded, the two parties would be 51-49 to Labor. Analyst Kevin Bonham estimated 51.6-48.4 to Labor by 2019 preference flows.

49% disapproved of Morrison’s performance (up one since April) and 43% approved (down one), for a net approval of -6, down two points. Albanese’s net approval was up one point to +1. Morrison led as better PM by 40-37 (40-36 previously).

34% said the government deserved to be re-elected (up one since last fortnight), and 49% said it was time to give someone else a go (up three).

Morgan poll: Labor’s lead narrows to 53-47, but…

A national Morgan poll, conducted May 9-15 from a sample of 1,366, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week’s poll. Primary votes were 34% Labor (down 1.5), 34% Coalition (steady), 13% Greens (steady), 4% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady), 9% independents (up 0.5) and 5% others (up one).

This two party result is based on 2019 preference flows. Until last week, Morgan was using respondent preferences, which were better for Labor. Bonham gets a Labor lead of 53.9-46.1 from Morgan’s primaries, implying Morgan miscalculated the 2019 flows.

It’s likely Morgan’s high independent vote is because they continue to ask for independents in all seats, even though most seats don’t have viable independents. Resolve was the other pollster that used to have high independent votes, but dropped the independent option in its last poll in most seats, leading to a surge for the Greens.

It’s not mentioned in the poll report, but Labor’s two party estimate using respondent preferences was actually up 0.5 points from the previous week to a 56.5-43.5 lead for Labor.

Adrian Beaumont is an Honorary Associate in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Melbourne



Source link

AMA Compares Major Party Health Policies


Media release – Australian Medical Association, 18 May 2022

AMA releases its election health report card

The AMA’s election health report card has been released today, giving Australians an overview of each of the major parties’ health commitments made during the campaign so far.

AMA President Dr Omar Khorshid said healthcare, for good reason, had been one of the major concerns of the public during the election campaign, but despite this neither major party had committed to a public hospital funding model which would help alleviate the enormous stress on the hospital system.

“The AMA’s logjam campaign has called on Government and Opposition to commit to a new hospital funding agreement with State Governments, aimed at addressing the crisis of ambulance ramping, overloaded emergency departments and delayed essential surgery,” he said.

“But the lack of commitment to the necessary $ 20.5 billion investment is disappointing as the incoming Prime Minister, whoever it may be, will be forced to negotiate a new agreement with States regardless.

“State and territory Premiers have called for a better deal, in line with the AMA’s Clear the hospital logjam campaign, and the next Prime Minister will not be able to avoid a 50/50 funding agreement.

“The Greens did commit to a 50/50 agreement – an important point to note considering the increased role the other parties and independents are likely to play in the next parliament,” he said.

Dr Khorshid said the report card did highlight some significant health investments – including the ALP’s promise of almost a billion-dollar investment into general practice to realize the 10 Year Primary Health Care Plan, and to provide additional GP infrastructure.

“This funding promise, if implemented, is good news for general practice and all Australians, and something we fought for as part of our Modernise Medicare campaign. It is a strong down payment which will help realize the recently completed 10 Year Primary Health Care Plan – a plan which remains unfunded by the Coalition, ”Dr Khorshid said.

Dr Khorshid said the AMA report card outlined other notable health investments, including the AMA’s longstanding call for a Center for Disease Control being committed to the ALP and the Greens, and $ 146 million by the Coalition, then matched by ALP, for rural health.

Dr Khorshid also said that while the Greens had outlined several significant funding commitments, they would be funded by abolishing the private health rebate, a short-sighted proposal that would destroy the successful public / private model of health delivery in Australia.

“It is disappointing that, after two years of a pandemic, that health was not made a more central feature of the two major parties’ platforms.

“While the report card highlights the investments committed across a range of areas, what is clearly missing is the overall vision for Australia’s health – the necessary big picture reform, backed by significant funding to tackle preventative health, public hospitals and the private health system, Dr Khorshid said.

The AMA election report card is available here. The report card assesses health policy announcements of the Liberal National Coalition, the Australian Labor Party and the Australian Greens against the Five Pillars of the AMA’s Vision for Australia’s Health.



Source link

В Офисе Зеленского отказались рассказать об эвакуации нацбатов с “Азовстали”


Online keyboard Vladimir Schmarky Alexander Axesort Aortesov т з з з з к з з з з з п п п п п п п п п п п п р завода “Azerbaijan”. From the very beginning, we have “unstoppable” with the impression of being able to reciprocate.

As a result of the orchestra, there is nothing wrong with “the reciprocity and exceptions” by the media.

“Есть решение, которое заключается в том, что, пока идёт операция, мы не комментируем. Слишком хрупко там всё, и одно неосторожное слово может всё обрушить. Не будем подставлять ребят и девчат. Когда те, кто занимается эвакуацией, скажут можно — мы get a comment “, – Азевил Арестович.

Кем реннреттоо О Ои О О Оии п О О О “”еод” “б п “”б п” Аб “б од од од од од од. А Locked up, there is an official definition of information from the Czech Republic of the United States.



Source link